Almost Fifty Percent Chance of US Recession Say These Banks

What is the likelihood of a US recession? 

 28/4/2025.  Nobody knows, but major bank and financial institutions have an opinion.  The great thing about probabilities is that they are not expected to become true.  Economists and financial experts can quote numbers knowing that they'll never be called on them later.

According to major names in finance, here's the chance that the US will enter recession...

Financial Institution	Estimated Probability of US Recession	Time Frame	Notes
JPMorgan Chase	60%	By end of 2025	Raised from 40% after new tariffs; cites trade policy as primary risk.
Goldman Sachs	45%	Next 12 months	Recently raised from 35% due to tightening financial conditions.
Citigroup	45%	Near term/2025	Cites impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley	40%	Near term	Notes risk of stagflation and market correction due to tariffs.
Deutsche Bank	43%	Next 12 months	Survey of 400 participants; recession risk "close to 50-50".
S&P Global	30%	2025	Revised up from 25% in March 2025.
HSBC	40%	By year-end 2025	Market-implied probability based on equities pricing.
Barclays	High risk (approx. 40%)	2025	Warns of contraction if tariffs persist; expects growth near recession threshold.
UBS	High risk (approx. 40%)	2025	Warns of contraction if tariffs persist; more cautious than some peers.
Bank of America	Elevated, but below 50% (est. 35%)	2025	Warns of increased risk, but baseline does not include recession.

Consensus Range: Most major financial institutions currently estimate the probability of a US recession in 2025 at 40–60%, with the average clustering around 45–50%. This reflects a significant upward revision from earlier in the year, driven largely by new tariffs and resulting policy uncertainty.

Table as image (click to enlarge)